If you were hoping U.S. crypto regulation would finally move faster… you may want to sit down.
Investment bank TD Cowen is sounding the alarm: the major digital asset bill currently floating through the Senate may not see the light of day until 2027, and possibly won’t fully kick in until 2029.
And the reason isn’t complicated.
Politics.
Midterms Are Creating a Massive Pause Button
As we head toward the 2026 midterm elections, TD Cowen believes Senate Democrats may hold back support to see who controls Congress next.
In other words:
Why rush a massive market-shaping bill when the balance of power could flip?
The legislation originally passed the House as the CLARITY Act, but in the Senate it’s packaged as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act. TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group now projects:
- Possible passage: 2027
- Full implementation: as late as 2029
That’s a long time in crypto years.
Politics Could Still Force Deal-Making
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Even though politics is slowing things down, election uncertainty could also push lawmakers to compromise faster than expected.
Why? Because no one really knows who will control Congress, and uncertainty often drives negotiation.
A bipartisan draft from the Senate Agriculture Committee even added conflict-of-interest rules that touch government officials and members of former President Donald Trump’s family, limiting crypto holdings and involvement for people covered under the law.
So yes, crypto regulation is now officially sitting at the intersection of money, power, and elections.
What Each Side May Have to Accept
TD Cowen suggests both sides will ultimately have to swallow some tough realities:
- Crypto advocates: The final rulebook will likely be shaped by presidential politics.
- Democrats: Some Trump-related provisions may sunset over time.
Translation: nobody gets everything they want.
Where the Bill Sits Right Now
Before anything becomes law, the bill still needs markup sessions in:
- The Senate Banking Committee
- The Senate Agriculture Committee
Reports say Banking Committee markup work is penciled in for the second week of January.
Meanwhile, one of the biggest shifts inside the bill would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) broader authority over digital assets, reducing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s role.
Right now, both agencies are operating with only Republican commissioners after Caroline Crenshaw exited the SEC and the White House hasn’t yet named replacements.
The Bottom Line
TD Cowen’s message is clear:
Regulation is probably coming…
Just not as soon as many hoped.
And when it arrives, the rules could reshape everything from trading to compliance to who is allowed to participate.
If you’re building, investing, or paying attention to crypto — this isn’t background noise. It’s the roadmap.
