Bitcoin’s rebound may be far from over. But the next leg higher doesn’t depend on hype, it depends on the Federal Reserve.
According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin could push toward $112,000 in the near term if the Fed turns more dovish and BTC clears two critical resistance levels at $99,000 and $102,000.
That’s the roadmap. And every step matters.
Rate Cuts Alone Aren’t Enough
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, says the market isn’t just waiting for a rate cut—it’s waiting for guidance.
What matters is:
- How soon the Fed signals future cuts
- How aggressive those cuts might be
- What the Fed projects for inflation next year
A single cut helps sentiment. A clearly dovish trajectory changes positioning.
Without that clarity, Bitcoin risks stalling at resistance.
Selling Pressure Has Quietly Disappeared
Bitcoin’s recovery from around $80,000 on Nov. 21 to roughly $90,500 today wasn’t driven by aggressive buying. It was driven by something more important: less selling.
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin deposits into exchanges have collapsed:
- 88,000 BTC on Nov. 21
- Just 21,000 BTC today
That’s a massive drop in sell-side supply.
Exchange inflows surged after Bitcoin’s previous peak near $126,000, then topped out just before BTC slid to $80,000. Now that flow has reversed—and that’s easing downside pressure in the short term.
When fewer coins hit exchanges, prices don’t need much demand to move higher.
Why $99K and $102K Matter So Much
Not all resistance levels are psychological. Some are structural.
CryptoQuant highlights $99,000 as the lower band of the Trader On-Chain Realized Price—a zone that historically caps rallies during bearish or transitional phases.
Clear that level, and the next test is:
- $102,000, the one-year moving average
- $112,000, the Trader On-Chain Realized Price itself
Those levels aren’t arbitrary. They reflect where active traders actually bought their coins—and where selling pressure tends to reappear.
Whales Have Stepped Back
Large holders were heavy sellers during the downturn. Now, they’re much quieter.
The share of total exchange deposits coming from large players has fallen:
- From 47% in mid-November
- To 21% today
Even average deposit size is shrinking—down 36%, from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC.
That tells a clear story: big players aren’t rushing to sell into this bounce.
Selling pressure also eased after investors absorbed heavy losses.
On Nov. 13, whales—both new and old—realized $646 million in losses, the largest single-day hit since July, as Bitcoin broke below $100,000. Since then, cumulative realized losses have reached $3.2 billion.
Historically, once losses reach that scale, forced selling tends to slow. Market participants either step back—or wait for higher prices.
That’s exactly what the data is showing now.
The Fed Is the Final Variable
Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but uncertainty remains around the pace of cuts into 2026.
If the Fed signals patience or delays, Bitcoin could stall below resistance. But if the tone shifts dovish, Moreno expects BTC to first test $99,000.
From there, the outcome depends on one thing:
Do traders take profits—or does low selling pressure allow a relief rally toward $112,000?
Bitcoin has already done the hard part by stabilizing. Now, it’s waiting on policy to decide how high it can go next.
