Bitcoin’s sharpest correction since the last bear market may be nearing its end. K33 Research is pointing to December as a potential turning point, signaling a rebound rather than another collapse.
Analyst Vetle Lunde says the evidence favors upside over further downside. Recent weeks saw heavy structural selling pressure, with spot Bitcoin ETFs shifting from net buyers to sellers and CME futures activity hitting multi-year lows, reflecting caution from traditional finance.
Bitcoin has underperformed equities, dropping to its weakest level against the Nasdaq since late 2024.
Despite the pullback, K33 argues the market is overreacting to distant threats while overlooking near-term signs of strength. Bitcoin is hovering near strong historical support between $70,000 and $80,000, with futures positioning remaining cautious, not overheated.
Other bullish signals include low leverage in perpetual markets and the absence of major liquidations. Traders are not overextended, which reduces the risk of cascading forced selling even amid price pressure.
Long-term concerns, like quantum computing risks, Strategy token sales, or Tether instability—sound dramatic but are unlikely to impact Bitcoin anytime soon. K33 emphasizes that these issues are years away and shouldn’t dominate current market sentiment.
Instead, focus should be on near-term catalysts. Supportive policy changes, including potential 401(k) access to crypto and a pro-crypto tilt from the Federal Reserve, could create structural upside heading into 2026.
According to K33, Bitcoin’s current price reflects fear more than fundamentals. The market is pricing in worst-case scenarios that may never materialize, creating an opportunity for savvy positioning.
Bottom line: December could be a key window for Bitcoin investors, with potential policy catalysts and improved sentiment setting the stage for a rebound as the market emerges from its steep correction.
