When a big Wall Street bank throws out a six-figure Bitcoin target during a choppy market, people pay attention. Even the skeptics.
That’s exactly what Citigroup just did.
Citi has set a 12-month “base case” price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin. From today’s level around $88,000, that’s roughly 62% upside. Not a moonshot prediction. Just the bank’s middle-of-the-road scenario.
This should raise some eyebrows…
— Brandon – BuildTheTech.com (@BrandonR2R) December 20, 2025
Citigroup's base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
Analysts highlight $70,000 as key support, with the potential for a sharp rise due to revived ETF demand and positive market forecasts.
The bear case sees bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/bueAwdw9wo
The forecast comes from Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo, and it leans on two familiar drivers: ETF inflows and a strong equity market. If stocks keep rallying and crypto ETFs continue to attract capital, Citi thinks Bitcoin has room to run.
In the near term, though, the bank isn’t expecting fireworks.
Citi sees Bitcoin likely trading between $80,000 and $90,000 heading into the new year, with user activity staying steady. One level matters more than the rest: $70,000. The analysts flag it as key support, noting that it was roughly where Bitcoin traded just before Donald Trump’s 2024 election win.
The bigger move, in Citi’s view, comes later.
Their base case assumes a rebound in ETF demand and a favorable macro backdrop. Regulation also plays a role. Citi points specifically to the Clarity Act, which has already passed the House. If it becomes law, the bank expects it to accelerate adoption and push more institutional money into the space.
But Citi isn’t pretending this is a one-way bet.
The bear case puts Bitcoin at $78,500, more than 10% below current levels. The trigger? A global recession. In that scenario, risk assets across the board would struggle, and crypto wouldn’t be spared.
Then there’s the upside scenario.
Citi’s bull case calls for Bitcoin hitting $189,000, more than doubling from today’s price. That outcome depends on one thing above all else: stronger end-investor demand. More buyers. More capital. More conviction.
Put it all together, and Citi’s message is clear.
Bitcoin doesn’t need perfection to move higher. It just needs ETFs to keep working, stocks to stay healthy, and regulation to stop being a roadblock. If that happens, $143,000 isn’t a stretch — it’s the base case.
