Zcash has been one of the loudest stories in crypto this year. But according to Raoul Pal, the move may not be as meaningful as it looks.
Speaking on the When Shift Happens podcast with Kevin Follonier, the Real Vision founder said Zcash’s recent surge feels more like short-term capital rotation than the start of a long-term bull market.
In simple terms: money is moving around. That doesn’t mean a new trend is locked in.
Price Action Isn’t Proof
Pal was clear. A strong chart alone doesn’t build conviction.
“Do I need that asset to say I was in earliest? I don’t really,” he said, pushing back on the idea that early price spikes equal structural upside.
For Pal, the key question is whether Zcash can hold up when the rest of the market moves. Until then, the rally looks speculative.
A Huge Run, Then a Reality Check
Zcash has delivered eye-catching numbers.
- Up around 699% since January
- Trading near $385, according to CoinMarketCap
But momentum has cooled fast. Over the past month, ZEC is down roughly 37%.
That pullback matters. Pal says it supports the rotation thesis rather than a true breakout.
“We can’t prove it until the whole market goes up and it continues to trend,” he said. “Right now, it’s confirming the rotation.”
What Would Change the Story
According to Pal, the next test is simple: can Zcash form a base?
If prices stabilize and then grind higher, it suggests long-term buyers are stepping in. If not, it’s just traders taking profits after a fast run.
“What you want to see is whether it finds a base and then starts pulling up again,” he explained.
For now, Pal isn’t chasing the move. He says he’d rather wait for a down cycle than buy after a parabolic rally.
Why Zcash Still Stands Out
Even with the pullback, Zcash has been an outlier in a choppy market. Its market cap jumped from under $1 billion in August to more than $7 billion at its November peak, while many major tokens struggled.
Part of that surge came after Arthur Hayes floated a bold call in late October, suggesting Zcash could one day hit $10,000. The market reacted fast. ZEC jumped around 30% in 24 hours.
ETF Talk Brings Institutional Attention
Beyond price action, interest in privacy-focused crypto is clearly rising. Concerns around surveillance, censorship, and regulation are pushing investors to rethink the role of privacy on-chain.
That shift is starting to show up at the institutional level. On Nov. 27, Grayscale filed with the U.S. SEC to convert its Zcash trust into a spot ETF.
That doesn’t guarantee approval. But it does signal something important: Zcash is back on institutional radar screens.
Bottom Line
Zcash’s rally has been impressive. No question. But as Raoul Pal sees it, the move still needs confirmation.
Until the market proves this is more than capital rotation, ZEC remains a trade, not a full-blown structural bet.
And in crypto, that distinction matters more than most people realize.
