TL;DR
- JPMorgan doesn’t buy the $1 trillion stablecoin hype, at least not anytime soon
- Stablecoin growth is still driven by crypto trading, not real-world payments
- Total supply could reach $500–600B by 2028, not a trillion
JPMorgan: The Stablecoin Boom Is Real, but the Trillion-Dollar Dream Isn’t
Stablecoins are growing fast. No debate there.
But if you’re expecting the market to hit $1 trillion in the next few years, JPMorgan says you might want to slow down.
The bank just doubled down on its view that the stablecoin sector won’t explode into a trillion-dollar market anytime soon. Instead, analysts expect total supply to land closer to $500–600 billion by 2028, roughly in line with their earlier forecasts.
That’s still big. Just not moon-big.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story
So far this year, the stablecoin market has expanded by about $100 billion, pushing total supply past $300 billion.
But here’s the key detail.
Growth hasn’t been broad-based.
- USDT added around $48 billion
- USDC grew by roughly $34 billion
Most of the new supply came from just two players. That kind of concentration, JPMorgan argues, says a lot about why stablecoins are growing.
It’s Still a Crypto-First Market
JPMorgan’s core argument hasn’t changed.
Stablecoin demand is still coming from inside crypto, not from the outside world.
Traders use stablecoins for:
- Spot and derivatives trading
- DeFi lending and borrowing
- Short-term cash parking
Payments may be growing, but they’re not the main engine.
One standout driver is derivatives trading. As perpetual futures volumes climbed this year, exchanges boosted their stablecoin holdings by around $20 billion. That tight link between trading activity and stablecoin supply explains why issuance tends to rise and fall with the broader crypto market.
In simple terms, when traders are active, stablecoins grow. When they’re not, growth slows.
Payments Alone Won’t Push Supply to $1 Trillion
Yes, stablecoins are being used more for payments.
But JPMorgan doesn’t think that automatically means supply has to skyrocket.
Why? Competition.
The bank points to tokenised bank deposits and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as alternatives that could meet payment demand without inflating stablecoin supply at the same rate.
So even if stablecoins gain traction in payments, they won’t have the field to themselves.
Why JPMorgan Is Pushing Back
Some banks and analysts are far more bullish, projecting trillion-dollar stablecoin markets in the near future.
JPMorgan isn’t buying it.
As long as trading-driven demand dominates, stablecoin growth will stay tied to the reality of crypto market cycles. That makes the trillion-dollar forecasts, in JPMorgan’s view, too optimistic.
The stablecoin boom is real.
It’s just not detached from crypto yet.
