Bitcoin is starting to feel heavy again. And this time, the warning signs are stacking up.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is hovering near $87,000, but traders are quietly preparing for more pain. Options data, market structure, and analyst commentary all point in the same direction. The recent bounce is losing steam, and the risk of a deeper pullback is growing as the year winds down.
Downside bets are building fast
Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $90,000 late Wednesday. The move did not last. Sellers stepped in quickly, dragging price back below $87,000 and leaving BTC lagging equities during the latest wave of macro uncertainty.
Derivatives markets tell the real story. Traders are loading up on put options around $85,000, especially ahead of the December 26 expiry. That kind of positioning usually shows up when investors expect weakness, not strength.
According to Derive.xyz, 30 day implied volatility has climbed toward 45%, while downside skew remains firmly negative. Even longer dated contracts reflect the same mood, suggesting bearish expectations are stretching into early 2026.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, summed it up simply. The uptrend that started in late November has broken. What we are seeing now looks a lot like the October sell off, where quick rebounds failed to turn into anything meaningful.
Ethereum is holding up, but cracks are visible
Ether looks slightly less fragile than bitcoin, at least on the surface. Short term ETH options still lean bearish, but longer dated positioning is closer to neutral. That suggests traders are less convinced a major breakdown is coming.
Still, there is caution underneath. A large cluster of ETH put options sits near $2,500 for late December, marking a level traders are watching closely if pressure increases.
A $10,000 bitcoin scenario is back on the table
Beyond short term positioning, some analysts are starting to talk about something much bigger. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned that bitcoin’s surge toward six figures earlier this year may have set the stage for a deep cycle reset.
In his view, extreme rallies often plant the seeds for extreme reversals. A move back toward $10,000 in 2026 is not impossible, especially if the next economic downturn hits highly speculative assets first. In that scenario, altcoins like ETH, ADA, and XRP would likely feel even more pain.
To be clear, bitcoin has not collapsed yet. It is down only about 5% in 2025 so far. But on chain data shows growing stress. Short term holders have been underwater for more than a month, while long term investors have reduced exposure by roughly 500,000 BTC since July, according to Glassnode.
Why leverage and macro still matter
Kuptsikevich noted that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts mattered less as a bullish trigger and more as a signal that tightening was over. That allowed investors to stay in risk assets through drawdowns and helped push bitcoin to new highs earlier this year.
The problem is leverage. It remains elevated. The October liquidation wave was a reminder of how quickly price discovery can break when positioning gets crowded.
Looking ahead, the big drivers are clear. Leverage, geopolitics, and macro uncertainty will shape the next phase. For now, the market is not chasing upside. It is bracing for volatility.
As 2025 comes to a close, one thing is clear. Downside risk is back in focus, and traders are preparing for a rougher road ahead.
